Research · Note 02

Bitcoin

5 September 2026 · 2 min · Under study

The scarce digital money nobody can print.

Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million coins, and the block reward is cut in half about every four years.

012.52550200920122016202020242028
New bitcoin per block after each halving. The schedule is public. Nobody votes to raise it.

Bitcoin’s supply growth is already below gold’s. No country can print bitcoin, so it can keep purchasing power while cash cannot.

Bitcoin~0.9%Gold~1.7%
Annual new supply after the 2024 halving. Bitcoin ~0.9%, gold ~1.7%. ARK / Glassnode. No country can raise bitcoin’s cap.
$5k$50k$500k$4m201520172019202120232026
  • Bitcoin
  • Cash
What $10,000 held since 2015 became, in today’s dollars. Cash versus bitcoin.

By the end of 2025, ETFs and public companies held only 12% of all coins, and most pensions still hold none. A 1% slice of a $200 trillion book is about $2 trillion of demand, larger than bitcoin’s $1.6 trillion size today.

ETFs and public companies12%The rest of the supply88%
Share of the 21 million coins already in ETFs and public companies at the end of 2025, per ARK. Most pensions still have none.
Bitcoin network today~$1.6TARK · 1% of the ~$200T book~$2TARK · 2.5% of the ~$200T book~$5T
ARK’s 1% and 2.5% slices of a ~$200 trillion book, set against bitcoin today. Not a price target.

Bitcoin is a useful portfolio diversifier: it has lower correlation with the S&P 500 than most equity sleeves.

Bitcoin with the S&P 5000.28S&P 500 with REITs0.79
How much each pair moved together since 2020, per ARK. 1 means they move as one. 0 means they do not.

Sources: Bitcoin whitepaper; ARK, Bitcoin’s Evolving Institutional Role; ARK Disrupt #411; ARK Big Ideas 2026. Charts illustrative. Not investment advice. Not a price target.

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